Original writing December 23, 2010, revised January 3rd, 2011
I just read an article in the New York Times titled “Alabama Town’s Failed Pension Is a Warning” written by Michael Cooper and Mary Williams Walsh, December 22, 2010. The first thing I noticed about the title is that it left out exactly who Prichard’s scenario was a warning to. After reading further, we see it is clearly a warning for city government officials and the voters who elected them to office; to be good stewards of both their office and their votes. It seems it is also a warning for county government officials, state government officials, and even federal government officials and the voters that elected them to office to be good stewards as well.
I would greatly encourage everyone to read this article, understand what it’s saying, how they got there, and how it could have been turned around.
Here's the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/23/business/23prichard.html
Here's the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/23/business/23prichard.html
A few excerpts from this very important and eye opening article:
“PRICHARD, Ala. — This struggling small city on the outskirts of Mobile was warned for years that if it did nothing, its pension fund would run out of money by 2009. Right on schedule, its fund ran dry.”
“Then Prichard did something that pension experts say they have never seen before: it stopped sending monthly pension checks to its 150 retired workers, breaking a state law requiring it to pay its promised retirement benefits in full.”
“The city’s rapid [Prichard’s] decline began in the 1970s. The growth of other suburbs, white flight and then middle-class flight all took their tolls, and the city’s population shrank by 40 percent to about 27,000 today, from its peak of 45,000. As people left, the city’s tax base dwindled.”
Census Bureau statistics show Selma’s population in 1970 at 27,400. By 2009 the Bureau’s estimate shows a drop of 32% to 18,278, an average of 1.1% a year.
According to the Census, Selma’s decline began around 1970 just like Prichard but for twenty years it was only around 3% per decade. Starting with the trouble within the school system around 1990, this loss drastically increased to over 10% per decade which is where it still is today.
Prichard lost 40 percent of its population since the 1970s and Selma has lost 32% in the same time frame.
Dallas County has lost around 11% in the last decade where Elmore County has gained 20% in the same time frame.
I realize that Selma and Prichard are different in some “positive” areas, however, I also see a pattern of similarities that are very hard to leave unnoticed.
I realize that Selma and Prichard are different in some “positive” areas, however, I also see a pattern of similarities that are very hard to leave unnoticed.
Here are some of those patterns:
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, both Selma and Prichard were similar in demographics, even though Prichard was a little larger in population and land area.
Therefore, Selma had a smaller population tax base and land base to maintain. I DO believe Selma has more people who love her however, and not nearly as many self serving, self motivated, negative crooks as Prichard had, especially in the current administration. I think there are some good people working down there at city hall working hard and doing the best they can right now. Prichard on the other hand, according to an article I read last year, there were some elected officials there who kept sticking their hands in the cookie jar (stealing money). Certainly, that didn't help the situation.
Therefore, Selma had a smaller population tax base and land base to maintain. I DO believe Selma has more people who love her however, and not nearly as many self serving, self motivated, negative crooks as Prichard had, especially in the current administration. I think there are some good people working down there at city hall working hard and doing the best they can right now. Prichard on the other hand, according to an article I read last year, there were some elected officials there who kept sticking their hands in the cookie jar (stealing money). Certainly, that didn't help the situation.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, both Prichard and Selma showed continual increases in the population base all the way up to around 1970, and then they both steadily have been losing population and tax base every year after 1970.
Prichard is at a 40% loss of population since 1970 and at the stage of bankruptcy while Selma is at a 33% loss of population. The real question is whether or not the 40% population loss is the tipping point of bankruptcy. If this assumption is correct, and I were a pessimist, then if changes in a positive direction are not enacted quickly, then Selma will be in a very awkward position in about six years because according to the U.S. Census Bureau estimate, Selma lost approximately 346 more people between 2009 and 2010. As of 2009, the U.S. Census has our population at 18,278. The magic number Selma will need to be at to have a loss of 40% of population since 1970 will be a population of 16, 444. If the census said we lost approximately 346 people between 2009 and 2010 and that trend continues then in 2010 we would be at 17,932, and in 2011 we’d have 17,586, and in 2012 we’d have 17,240 and in 2013 we’d have 16,894 and therefore Selma’s tipping point would be extremely close in 2014 at a population of around 16,548, therefore it will only take us approximately 3 or 4 more years for Selma to be at the 40% population/tax base loss that Prichard is experiencing currently. And think about this; we do have an election coming up in 2012. A negative campaign orchestrated on the radio and on the streets and the wrong person getting elected as mayor of Selma in 2012 could very easily cause the tipping point happen early. In other words, if just 450 extra people moved out of Selma above the 346 census average by the end of 2012 due to the elections or a negative campaign, then Selma’s population would be at the 40% loss mark (16,444) the same year the Mayan calendar expires. For you doom and gloom experts, that’s specifically December the 21st, 2012.
Also, something else to consider. According to the U.S. Census, only 46% of the population of the City of Selma is actually working as of 2009. What that means is that in excess of 54% of the Selma tax base are not working, therefore bringing in less money, therefore spending less money to contribute tax dollars and spending in the system. That means children, young adults, unemployeed, retirees, home makers, etc and from what I have been seeing, it is majority the working middle class that are the ones moving. The 46% statistic was in 2009, but for now, let's assume that it has stayed the same as of 2011, therefore 46% times the estimated 2011 population of 17,586 is approximately 8,000 working citizens. I have heard taht the population has already dropped below 17,000, which is true would put the working citizens at around 7,800. These are the people that have more money to spend at locally owned businesses in town, although it's unfortunate that some of them drive to other cities like Montgomery and Prattville to spend at least some of it. If I had to guess, Walmart is very important to the city of Selma right now, and will continue to be even more important for tax revenue in the next ten years.
Also, something else to consider. According to the U.S. Census, only 46% of the population of the City of Selma is actually working as of 2009. What that means is that in excess of 54% of the Selma tax base are not working, therefore bringing in less money, therefore spending less money to contribute tax dollars and spending in the system. That means children, young adults, unemployeed, retirees, home makers, etc and from what I have been seeing, it is majority the working middle class that are the ones moving. The 46% statistic was in 2009, but for now, let's assume that it has stayed the same as of 2011, therefore 46% times the estimated 2011 population of 17,586 is approximately 8,000 working citizens. I have heard taht the population has already dropped below 17,000, which is true would put the working citizens at around 7,800. These are the people that have more money to spend at locally owned businesses in town, although it's unfortunate that some of them drive to other cities like Montgomery and Prattville to spend at least some of it. If I had to guess, Walmart is very important to the city of Selma right now, and will continue to be even more important for tax revenue in the next ten years.
However, if I were an optimist (and I am), I believe that Selma will NOT go bankrupt as Prichard is seeking to do, and will NOT default on city employees retirement pensions in order to keep the payroll of the existing staff, and and being the optimist I am, I beleive that the world will NOT end with the Mayan calendar on December 21st, 2012 because Selma has some things going for it that Prichard does not, therefore the actual tax base/budget numbers might be skewed in a positive direction somewhat. Selma has a lot more tourism dollars coming in than Prichard does which greatly helps to keep Selma afloat. Every tourism dollar, every positive effort, every tax dollar spent in Selma and on Selma, every effort to renovate and promote or expand existing recreational facilities, every effort to revitalize our downtown shopping center, Selma’s mall, pushing for a nice and safe movie theater here and some major visionary research and design of a beautiful, well lighted, well thought out and safe river walk downtown with ample parking in close proximity and some other major tourist attractions that will make not only make Selmians proud, but also make people want to come here, stay here, and spend their money here.
I am an optimist, but at the same time a realist. Although I don't believe in showing your garbage for everyone to see, I also believe that hiding from key and very real issues, especially one that is SO IMPORTANT, solely for the sake of "image", is a dangerous plank to be walking on.
I am an optimist, but at the same time a realist. Although I don't believe in showing your garbage for everyone to see, I also believe that hiding from key and very real issues, especially one that is SO IMPORTANT, solely for the sake of "image", is a dangerous plank to be walking on.
Prichard’s story has special meaning to me since I have both a Prichard and Selma connection and also a Prichard U.S. Census connection. I say that because at the announcement of my mother’s pregnancy with me near the beginning of the rapid decline of Prichard’s population in 1970, my parents were a part of the white and middle class population that the article in the New York Times was speaking of which fled Prichard. I was born in 1971, residing still in Mobile County, but instead of starting my life in Prichard, Alabama, I began my life living in Chickasaw, Alabama, one of the "safer" suburbs outside of Prichard where some middle class whites and blacks fled to. I can still remember the stories my parents spoke of about Prichard when I was a child, which I recently revisited with them in discussion after reading the New York Times article. I can still remember them saying how unsafe it was there and about all of the stealing and the murders and shootings. I can remember them talking about how a week didn’t go by that you didn’t hear gunshots in the city limits at night.
My advice to the residents of Selma is; don’t leave, don’t move away. I still have lots of hope for Selma and you should too. If you leave, we all lose. Also, all communitys in Dallas County will lose as well. Selma has a lot of potential if people would quit trying to destroy it with negativity and political advancement at the expense of its citizens. Let’s rebuild this battle scarred city and quit stirring up controversy and polarizing the city. Polarization and negative talk only gets people stirred up, angry, discouraged, and makes them want to move to a more positive place. Have you ever heard of escalating an argument – you know, that’s when you start cussing and throwing stuff. It's a spiral effect that gets progressively worse until someone is man enough to say "enough is enough" and "this arguement isn't productive". It’s not healthy and it doesn’t encourage business and growth. Anger never loved anyone and I think it’s safe to say that a lot of negativity actually increases unhappiness, therefore increasing violence and crime in general. Quit reopening old wounds and rubbing salt in them like some groups, organizations and individuals seem to want to try and do. Quit all the selfish, childish stuff and quit supporting and encouraging those groups, organizations and individuals who do. I am not going to name any names here (or radio stations), but I think you know who you are.
My advice to the residents of Selma is; don’t leave, don’t move away. I still have lots of hope for Selma and you should too. If you leave, we all lose. Also, all communitys in Dallas County will lose as well. Selma has a lot of potential if people would quit trying to destroy it with negativity and political advancement at the expense of its citizens. Let’s rebuild this battle scarred city and quit stirring up controversy and polarizing the city. Polarization and negative talk only gets people stirred up, angry, discouraged, and makes them want to move to a more positive place. Have you ever heard of escalating an argument – you know, that’s when you start cussing and throwing stuff. It's a spiral effect that gets progressively worse until someone is man enough to say "enough is enough" and "this arguement isn't productive". It’s not healthy and it doesn’t encourage business and growth. Anger never loved anyone and I think it’s safe to say that a lot of negativity actually increases unhappiness, therefore increasing violence and crime in general. Quit reopening old wounds and rubbing salt in them like some groups, organizations and individuals seem to want to try and do. Quit all the selfish, childish stuff and quit supporting and encouraging those groups, organizations and individuals who do. I am not going to name any names here (or radio stations), but I think you know who you are.
Get on your work boots and roll up your sleeves. Start and/or continue rebuilding side by side with people of all races, and make Selma a better, more pleasant place to live. Start encouraging positive, progressive and intelligent minded people to move here. Even if you have to work with someone you don’t like, do it because you love your city more, and yourself less, to benefit the good of the whole.
Because, if we don’t start working together in a positive direction and turning these statistics around, we could all be looking at losing at lot more than our pensions.
Dewayne Allday
Selma, Alabama
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