Friday, November 26, 2010

Elevators

There are some whose elevator may skip a few floors but their building is often times taller than that of their critics.

~Dewayne Allday

Teach Me Lord

Lord, You are giving me the tools, now please teach me how to build.

~Dewayne Allday

Life is Bigger

Life becomes much more satisfying when you live it outside of yourself.

~Dewayne Allday

Floods

Don't let past memories of destructive floods in your life overide the promise of the rainbow and cloud over a beautiful blue sky.

~Dewayne Allday

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Leading up to and Moving Beyond the Economy Crisis

I am normally an optimist and have a little trouble being around negative personalities so please don't label me as a full time doom and gloom kind of guy after you read what i have to say here.  I still have great hopes for our immediate recovery from the worst economy crash since the great depression; a crash that was heard around the world.

Over one year prior to this crash I was concerned about an economic uncertainty just around the bend told several people, including a client of mine about my suspicions prior to the problem.  It was late 2007/early 2008.  All of you have read that our situation was caused by too much money being loaned to unworthy candidates in the housing market, banks loaning out too much credit and too much credit in general but while I agree that was part of the problem, in my strong opinion there were other factors working in conjunction with the credit situation and it's those factors that are scaring me because no one is talking about them.  These factors could happen again, and it's my concern that if they happen again in this struggling and still horrible economy it could set off a chain reaction around the world that would make this recession/depression we're having now look like a hiccup after eating some small potatoes and that's why we need to talk about it.

I am writing this as i eat breakfast.  I was starving this morning and these pancakes are so good.  I have been awake since 4:30 am to insure that my wonderful wife had hot water in the guest house for a shower since ours is not working in the house.  Hot water and pancakes are a luxury in some parts of the world.  Can you imagine yourself without hot water?  During the great depression of the 30's they say it was really bad.  This current deep recession was called a depression by many in the media, how that determination was made i do not know because i don't know the statistics about the original great depression in order to compare it.  i do know this, today many of us are spoiled.  We are spoiled in that most of us rely on the grocery store for food.  We have to have our hot water and our pancakes, cigarettes (not me, I'm smoke free), vehicles, eat out nights, lunch with friends at one of the many local restaurants etc and you know what? Many of us don't know how to raise our own food.  Seriously, i am not saying take up gardening classes, but what i am saying is that people during the great depression made it through by learning how to skimp on the luxuries, but many of them, particularly in rural areas, all had gardens.  Today there are fewer and fewer people that know how to raise their own food, and more usable land converted to subdivisions, so if a serious depression hit, and if it were not for welfare, there would be some very hungry people about which would create some serious and terrible situations.  Illness, starvation, serious crime and even an increase in violent crimes.

In my opinion what led up to the current financial crisis was not just the credit cards and uncontrolled spending, but something prior which led up to people abusing those generous credit lines in the first place leading down the road to the foreclosures, bankruptcies and bank failures.  That's what I want to discuss because that's what I am afraid that it's some of these factors leading up to the problem that will extend this recession and if other measures aren't put in place, could even take us further backwards.  In other words, balance the budget Mr. Government.  Take a business class and take and economics class and let's get this thing turned around before it's too late.

What caused our financial crisis?  I will highlight on the top six:

1.  Quickly inflated gas prices
2.  Habitual spending
3.  Over spending
4.  Lose credit regulations and too much credit
5.  Bank foreclosures
6.  Poor national leadership
7.  Monopolies

We have been through what's called a correction and I'm not talking about a ruler slap on the wrist by a nun in Catholic grade school, I am talking about a serious correction, but why let failure correct us?  Why not be proactive and fix the failed system before the slap from the big ruler?

How does quickly inflated gas prices and habitual spending fit in?  Why are they my first two concerns placed in front of the loose credit regulations and bank foreclosures?  Because they both have just as much if not more significance to our current problem and let me explain why and then I will propose a solution, a solution that may not be received well by either republicans or democrats or anyone in the oil business.

For many years we all in this country were used to gas prices being around $1.30 to $1.50 per gallon.  When I say "years" what I mean is why in the heck did it stay so cheap for so long?  For you who disagree with me and contend that we had it made because gas prices averaged $5 per gallon in the UK for years, then please hang with me and let me help you understand the significant difference.  It's mainly the sudden jump in gas prices instead of a gradual one that spoiled our milk our milk here in the States.  I can remember gas being around $1.15 when i graduated from high school in 1990 and 15 years later it was not much more.  Our economy grew like crazy during those years and except for a couple of much smaller hiccups we were doing great.  I have always heard that inflation is around 3% per year so why didn't that apply to gas prices and why the sudden "correction" or spike during the Bush administration?  I am not trying to open a can of worms, just wanting this to not happen again and for our country's economy to get rolling again and not take a nose dive.  My point is that IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A "GRADUAL PROCESS" and slow enough for us as a country to digest it and adjust our life styles accordingly.  Just one example of the severity of this sudden adjustment in gas prices directly related to the mortgage crisis is the planning of how big of a house you can afford on a fixed 30 year loan.  You figure up your "fixed costs" (gas, vehicle payment, utility bills) and a few others and determine how much of a house payment you can afford.  Also, minimum wages went up considerably since 1990, from around $3.25 or $3.50 an hour to double that of $7.25 per hour in 2010 or before.  The gas/minimum wage cost was significantly out of balance until recently.  Basically gas prices are now roughly double what they were in 1990 and so is the minimum wage, but the minimum wage is a little more than double, so YES that is good in my opinion.  My next point is that we were making extra money and gas was cheap so for years we got accustomed to spending money, going out to eat every weekend, many of us ate out every day (i wasn't one of those).  We got stuck in some habits and scientists and psychologists alike will tell you that habits are very hard to break.  So what happened next?  Gas prices decide to make their own "correction" and out of the blue they jumped from $1.50 to $3.00 and even around $4.00 per gallon.  Now, the purpose of this article is not for me to get shot an killed, because i know there's BIG money in oil, but my purpose is to show that it's my strong opinion this "correction" in gas prices which "leaped" in 2008 was the shot that was heard around the world and this combined with loose credit is what got us in the situation we are in now.  I say that because when gas prices went up, did we quit spending as a country?  No.  Many people kept eating out every day.  People kept going out on the weekends.  Some people such as me, a home builder,  already had construction projects under way and we were bound to contract to finish them no matter how far a drive it was to the jobsite every day.  People who had jobs 60 miles and even 100 miles from home and commuting every day DID NOT have a choice to quit either, but to continue to drive their vehicles, sometimes gas guzzlers, to work.  Out of habit, people continued to spend and to go, and since many of them were putting an extra $40 to $120 worth of gas into their vehicles every week and it was so easy to pay for supper with a credit card, this is what they were doing.  Too much credit.  I myself had over $40,000 worth of credit limits.  I spent almost $18,000 for gas in 2008, which is over $8,000 not budgeted for when i priced the jobs and makes Bush tax credit of $800 which was supposed to stimulate the economy at the end of the year look like a piece of bubble gum out of a Kiwanis club bubble gum machine.  That $8,000 should have went back into the economy and it did not.  It went into the oil companies pocket, which in my opinion did not get back into the economy, and in my opinion was a big waste.  Tell me, did the cost of making oil really more than double in less than a year?  No, it was ALL PROFIT.

Now I am going to have to go soon because I've finished my pancakes and I'll need to get to work, not to go to a construction job, but to figure out why I don't have any hot water so my working wife and myself can get a shower and she can get to work.  I mean, after all, with the housing market crash, I've been out of work for over 3 months.  Ironically I signed a contract to build a new house three months ago, but it is taking it's sweet time at the bank because of tighter banking regulation on the pre-approved loan, the time frame a knee jerk reaction to an "over-correction" in the economy resulting in a serious correction in the bank lending industry.  Maybe next week the loan will close and I can once again start contributing to my family and the economy, but for now it's pancakes, fixing a shower, and writing a blog.

Where'd the money go?  Some quick unscientific math.  Get the census numbers and do the math yourself.

According to statistics the United States is the third largest country in the world with over 300 million people living here.  This is only beat by two countries, China and India, both having a population of over 1 billion.  Those are facts.   Now, this is where I (or someone) should do more research:  Let's assume 1/2 of the 300 million are old enough to drive.  Let's assume that when gas jumped up they spent an extra $40 per week on gas.

Pre-gas rise prices for 500 miles per week average comparison from $1.25 per gallon to $3.25 per gallon.

vehicle at 12 miles per gallon - 500 divided by 12 = 41.67 gallons per week x $1.25 gallon = $52 per week
vehicle at 25 miles per gallon - 500 divided by 25 = 20 gallons per week x $1.25 gallon = $25 per week

Now lets jump the gas prices suddenly up to $3.25 per gallon:


vehicle at 12 miles per gallon - 500 divided by 12 = 41.67 gallons per week x $3.25 gallon = $169 per week
vehicle at 25 miles per gallon - 500 divided by 25 = 20 gallons per week x $3.25 gallon = $65 per week

Let's take the average between the gas guzzler and the gas saver and then multiply that times the number of people (again, this is an assumption) driving in the united states:

($169+$65) divided by 2 = $117 per week extra out of people's pay checks.  Personally I believe 500 miles a week is about right because about everyone I know put at least one take of gas in their vehicle every week at 400 miles per tank, and also quite a few people go twice that because of commuting to their job, but let's cut it back to $100 extra dollars a week going to the oil companies (because it didn't go to the gas stations, according to friends I know that own gas stations it put them in a bind because they still made exactly the same per gallon but had to spend extra money in the front end, sometimes on credit, to fill their tanks up with the more expensive gas).

So assuming 150 million people spend an extra $100 per week on gas before the market collapse we can multiply 150,000,000 x $100 which equals $15,000,000,000.  That's 15 BILLION dollars per average week not going into our economy multiplied to 52 weeks - $780,000,000,000.  That's 780 BILLION dollars in one years time that DID NOT go into our people's pockets and back into the economy.  My proposal is that a fraction of that, went on credit cards.  People maxed out their credit cards and there were NOT ENOUGH regulations on credit card companies and even banks, some charging $40 a month for late payments and even loan shark interest rates of 30%.  People found themselves in a awkward position.  Without all the credit cards, people would have "corrected" themselves and their budgets sooner, after all, some of the commuters couldn't even afford to drive to work.  Possibly, they were the first to start defaulting after quiting their jobs, or they tried it for a while putting extra expenses on credit cards before realizing the boat was sinking.

Where did 780 billion dollars go? Overseas?  How much of that money stayed here to help our economy?  Did the cost of overhead in the oil industry really more than DOUBLE in less than a years time.  ABSOLUTELY NOT.  Maybe it went to the over paid CEO's, board members, bribed politicians, etc who are now purchasing all the homes that have been foreclosed on so they can now rent them out and turn the United States into a Section 8 rental country.  Did a sudden increase in gas prices during the Bush administration help destroy our economy and affect the entire world.  ABSOLUTELY.

So, what can we do about it?  I believe the oil industry got greedy personally but since oil is a traded commodity we can't say that 100% and also the oil market is also controlled by who?  Come on, that's not hard to answer if you do a little research, but also keep in mind that MONOPOLIES also play a part in this.  I mean, how many oil companies out there are there to begin with?  Not many.  I believe when things crashed at the end of the Bush Administration "someone" saw the mistake that was made and tried to help correct it because WHAT HAPPENED?  Gas prices went way down as President Obama went into office although gas prices have since been slowly going up since that time.  Had gas prices remained high we'd all be seriously boating in the swamps without a paddle amongst the alligators and crocodiles.

Again, what can we do about it:

1.  Quickly inflated gas prices - Something that affect our economy so drastically, the pricing should be controlled tighter
2.  Habitual spending - Time - An adjustment period.  We're all adjusting now, but just a little too late
3.  Over spending - Our government should quickly take a lesson we've all had to learn.  Stop it.  Balance the the dang checkbook like the rest of us.  Government should quit borrowing money to get by.  We had to, and they should see and understand what happened to us and use that example to get rid of the deficit before it's too late.
4.  Loose credit regulations and too much credit - This has been overly corrected in order to make up for past mistakes
5.  Bank Forclosures - New policies in place to allow people to stay in their houses so that we all don't become a nation of renters instead of owners.  The rich get richer and the poor get poorer?  Understand what I am saying?
6.  Poor National Leadership - Wake up call.  Quit electing weak minded self serving people to leadership positions.
7.  Monopolies - A subject for another day, my one vice to true capitalism.

There are many points in this article that I wrote this morning, but one point I want to make very clear and if you are reading this and you are in the know and and in a position or about to be in a position to fix things, please do answer these questions:

1)  Who in government dropped the ball 2) who saw the mistake and picked up the ball? 3)  Who is protecting the ball, and who is protecting the guy who is protecting the ball?  and 4) who is watching the ball and the guy who is protecting the guy who is holding the ball and making sure they are not a crook?  

I have strong capitalist views, but my only fault with true capitalism (at this point in my life) is 1) monopolies controlling markets and having too much power can drastically affect our economy and if something goes wrong and they fold then we're seriously in trouble 2) what I call "fixed costs" increasing at an alarming rate which ARE BASIC ESSENTIALS such as gas, power bill, water bill, sewer bill, other utility bills and lastly insurance costs and land tax costs.  I believe in capitalism, but these "essentials" have to be "capped", controlled and regulated as well as the banking industry.

Now, SERIOUSLY, Mr. Government.  Regulate these industries asap instead of just printing more dollars which could make the United States loose it's reputation as a world leader, increase inflation at a substantial rate hurting this country even more, and also encourage other countries to listen to China and the World Bank and drop the Dollar entirely for a more stable form of unified standard such as the recent World Bank's recommendation of going back to a Gold standard.  Do not allow gas prices to go back up (even though they already are, make them go back down).  I realize they need to go up, but it should have been a gradual thing and they went up too quickly and now we're now in a crisis.  Ease off the gas prices so we'll all have more money again to start spending again and help encourage the minimum wage workers to keep their job because fixed costs such as utility bills and gas to get to work doesn't cost them more than their paycheck, so that they aren't encouraged to just "give up" and get on welfare or unemployment which puts more of a strain on our national deficit and the working people struggling to get through this ailing economy.

Mr. Government.  Please get this ball rolling, so the economy will recover and more of us can get more work so we can help contribute some cash to that struggling fat and failing oil industry.  I am sorry about the sarcasm, but our country to bleeding right now, so Mr. Government, fix the wounds.


Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Cahaba River, Alabama

I have built this article as a reference guide to help plan and time canoe trips down the Cahaba River.  If you can not swim, I do not recommend this.  If you do not devote the time into studying the river and how rainfall affects the currents and also dangers associated with canoeing rivers with fast currents I do not recommend you go without first going with someone fairly experienced in these things.  It's one thing losing a camp stove or a camera, but quite another to lose a life.  Two or three inches of rainfall can turn a wonderful trip into a nightmare.  Not trying to scare you, only to inform you.  If camping on a shallow island, one inch of rain can raise the river more than 6 inches (enough to flood your tents).  Soapstone cliffs in the curves of the river often have caves eroded out just under the water surface; something you don't want to dive off of and get pushed into by the current. A tree that has fallen across the river and blocked your canoe to pass can also be a killer if you get sideways and lean the canoe upstream allowing water to quickly enter in, flipping the canoe with you in and pinning you between the canoe and the tree under the water.  Allowing your canoe to be sideways against a submerged (or not submerged) rock, stump or tree branch in fast current could cause you to flip the canoe also if you panic and lean the wrong way.  If you are not paying attention and some low tree limbs are extending out and all of a sudden you turn around and one knocks you out of the canoe or punctures your eye out.  Also, if you lose your canoe and can't go on, it can be a very long walk back to civilization.  There's a small chance of alligators and a good chance of poisonous snakes.  The Cahaba River isn't as wide as the Alabama River and Alligators like hanging out near the bank which could be close to where you are swimming.  Flipping the canoe and getting soaking wet in the very cold of winter could cause hypothermia.

All I am saying is a little planning and thinking is all that is required to have a fun and fulfilling trip down the Cahaba River.  Pay attention and even scout ahead.  Read books and articles and talk with others that have floated it.  This will definitely all be worth it and canoeing down the Cahaba River can and will be a very enjoyable trip to any outdoors orientated person, so read, plan ahead, prepare and do it!!


Centerville, Alabama (Cahaba Park) to Selma, Alabama (U.S. Highway 80) - 61 miles

According to John H. Foshee in his book "Alabama Canoe Rides", this trip is a total of 61 miles.  This encompasses Section 13 through Section 18 in his book.  Three others and myself are going to attempt this trip this month.  Hopefully we can do it in two nights and three days without any problems.

Links

Cahaba River - Centerville to Suttle Charts - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/?n=cahab_csr
Cahaba River - Normal/Flood State - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hic/current/river_flooding/AL.shtml
Cahaba River - Flood Stage Predictions - http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/weekly.php?wfo=bmx&gage=chga1&toggles=&view=1,1,1,1,1,1
Cahaba River - http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=bmx&gage=ckla1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Cahaba Miscellaneous - http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?referred_module=sw&huc2_cd=03150202&index_pmcode_00065=3&index_pmcode_00060=4&index_pmcode_00062=5&index_pmcode_72020=6&sort_key=site_no&group_key=county_cd&sitefile_output_format=html_table&index_pmcode_DATETIME=2

Cahaba River - USGS Mountainbrook - http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?site_no=02423380
Cahaba River - USGS Trussville - http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?site_no=02423130
Cahaba River - USGS Cahaba Heights - http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?referred_module=sw&site_no=02423425
Cahaba River - Hoover - http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?referred_module=sw&site_no=02423496
Cahaba River - USGS Acton - http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?referred_module=sw&site_no=02423500
Cahaba River - USGS Helena - http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?referred_module=sw&site_no=02423555
Cahaba River - USGS Centrevillehttp://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?02424000
Cahaba River - USGS Suttlehttp://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?referred_module=sw&site_no=02424590
Cahaba River - USGS Marion Junctionhttp://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?referred_module=sw&site_no=02425000


State Wide Stream Flows - http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=03&w=real,map


Alabama Lakes, Rivers and Water Sources - http://geology.com/lakes-rivers-water/alabama.shtml

River Depth.com - Centerville http://river-depth.com/graphs/02424000?period=10

Section 13 - U.S. 82 (Centerville) to Harrisburg Bridge - 11.7 miles (our put in is actually the park)

13 hour trip over 36 miles = approximately 2 1/2  miles per hour
Put in at Centreville, AL - Friday, November 12th, 2010 @ 9:30am
Suttle flow  - approximately 400 cfs, depth 5.60 feet
Centerville flow - approximately 290 cfs, depth 1.10 feet
Marion Junction flow - 520 cfs, depth 2.10 feet

We put in at Centerville, AL.  There is a public park there, and a concrete ramp going down to the river, so it made it very easy.  Edit: April, 22nd, 2012 as of spring, 2012, the family that owns this boat ramp and park has closed it.  The story I heard is the son wanted to live in a house on the property.  Another ramp location needs to be found in this area if you want to put in here unless you work something out with the family.  We took out in Sprott on U.S. Hwy 83 Bridge on Sunday November 14th, 2010 at 1 pm
This trip encompassed Sections 13, 14, 15 and 16 (Sprott) in three days.  Our goal was to make the Highway 80 Bridge in Selma Alabama, but the current was slow due to the width of the river in some of these sections and I'm pretty sure that John Foshee's calculations of the mileage for these sections was under calculated.  Had the river been up about 6 more inches and the cfs up some (but still under safe levels) I feel like we would have made the trip if we had put in earlier and taken out later, but instead we fished, and put in around 9:30 am each morning and set up camp at 4pm both evenings.  We also took about an hour for lunch both days so we actually only had about 5 hours of float time Friday and Saturday, and then another 3 hours on Sunday for a total of 13 hours of actual floating time.  At about 36 miles over three days that's over 2 1/2 miles per hour float time.

We'll finish our group trip up this spring.

Section 14 - Harrisburg Bridge to County Road 47 (Jericho) Bridge - 11.3 miles


Section 15 - County Road 47 (Jericho) Bridge to Alabama Highway 14 (Sprott) - 11.5 miles


Section 16 - Alabama Highway 14 (Sprott) to County Road 30 (Radford) - 7.3 miles


Section 17 - County Road 30 (Radford) to County Road 6 (Suttle) - 9.1 miles


Section 18 - County Road 6 (Suttle) to U.S. Highway 80 (Selma) - 9.7 miles
5 hour trip over 9.7 miles = approximately 2 miles per hour
Saturday November 6th, 2010
Suttle flow  - approximately 430 cfs, depth 5.70 feet
Centreville flow - approximately 310 cfs, depth 1.20 feet
Marion Junction flow - 600 cfs, depth 2.40 feet


I floated this section with my son Saturday, November 6th, 2010.  We put in at the bridge on County Road 6.  There is a dirt road that drops down below the bridge from the pavement.  The slope to the river is pretty steep here (about 35 degrees) but it's not hard to get the canoe down the bank into the water.  Bringing it up you'd definitely need an extra hand (or two).  We arrived at 12 noon and took out at the U.S. Highway 80 bridge at 5 pm, so this basically was a 5 hour trip.  We made one 30 minute stop. 
Getting in was easy, but to hour surprise (not mentioned in Foshe's book) it was not far down stream was about a 40 feet stretch of white water including two drops, one about 1 foot and one at least 18 inches.  I was on the front of the canoe and luckily we kept the canoe straight as we went through.  Had we went across that sideways there is no doubt the canoe would have flipped.  I got soaking wet in the front of the canoe, at least my waist down anyway, when we went off the second drop the front of the canoe almost went underwater and I got splashed several times.  The canoe took on about 1/2 inch of water in this area. 


This stretch of the Cahaba River was beautiful and there were some high banks, particularly in the first half of the trip, one bank had to be 100 feet tall.  There were some cypress trees, and lots of Sycamore trees, willows and maples in this stretch.There were at least 5 sandbars and/or islands high enough to camp on without much worry of getting flooded out unless there were huge storms upstream.  This trip was quite enjoyable and not tiring at all.


Interesting notes were the deer we canoed by and lots of mallards and wood ducks.  There was one 9 foot alligator that made a horrific splash about 40 in front of us in one narrow stretch, going underwater right in front of us.  I had a paddle ready just in case he surfaced under the canoe!!  The only negative note I have is that there were about 15 floats stuck in the tree debris along the edge of the river, I am assuming leftover remnants from bad luck experiences people had trying to float down the river upstream, losing their float in the process.  I had heard about a shuttle service of sorts but the only two people I spoke with that had experienced the trip got bruised and cut up (the legs), one having their ankle twisted.  They both said they wouldn't be back.  However, someone must be having fun because they keep doing it.


Obviously this trip would have moved a lot slower in the summer time, but the water level was decent on this trip and we made good time.  I am going to try this again in a couple of weeks, so we'll see how it goes then.


Section 18A - H.S. Highway 80 (Selma) to Alabama Highway 22 -
This Section begins fast with hardly any paddling required but about 2/3 of the way south the water basically stops and if you want to get to the bridge before dark (considering you put in a little after daylight) you had better paddle fairly consistently. A good day trip estimated at around 9 hours without stops.